The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

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dc.authoridGiovanis, Eleftherios/0000-0002-7492-7461
dc.authorwosidGiovanis, Eleftherios/AAX-5634-2020
dc.contributor.authorGiovanis, Eleftherios
dc.contributor.authorÖzdamar, Öznur
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-22T19:47:38Z
dc.date.available2023-03-22T19:47:38Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentBelirleneceken_US
dc.description.abstractLower tax revenues and greater government spending result in higher deficits and public debt. As a result, determining the degree of budgetary effects is vital, but important to assess the persistence of these effects. We aim to investigate the impact of climate change on the fiscal balance and public debt in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The empirical analysis relies on panel data in the period 1990-2019 and employs various models. The findings show that temperature changes adversely affect the government budget and increase debt, but we find no significant impact of changes in rainfall. The average temperature decreases fiscal balance by 0.3 percent and increases debt by 1.87 percent. Using projections of temperature and rainfall over the years 2020 to 2099, we find a significant decrease in the fiscal balance at 7.3 percent and an increase in the public debt at 16 percent in 2060-2079 and 18 percent in 2080-2099 under the assumption of a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. On the contrary, under the low GHG emission scenario, the fiscal balance deteriorates by 1.7 percent in 2020-2039 and 2.2 percent in 2080-2099, while public debt rises by 5 percent in 2020-2039 and 6.3 percent in 2080-2099.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEconomic Research Forum (ERF); ERFen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was sponsored by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) under the research called Fiscal Sustainability in the MENA Region in Light of the COVID-19 Crisis and has benefited from both financial and intellectual support. The contents and recommendations do not necessarily reflect ERF's views. The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the ERF.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x
dc.identifier.issn0165-0009
dc.identifier.issn1573-1480
dc.identifier.issue3-4en_US
dc.identifier.pmid35729894en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85131801886en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14034/803
dc.identifier.volume172en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000810659300001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMeden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.journalClimatic Changeen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectBudget balancesen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectMiddle East and North Africa regionen_US
dc.subjectPublic debten_US
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation indexen_US
dc.subjectStationarityen_US
dc.subjectUnit-Root Testsen_US
dc.subjectTransparencyen_US
dc.subjectAdaptationen_US
dc.subjectInferenceen_US
dc.subjectModelsen_US
dc.titleThe impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regionen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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