Land use and land cover change in Duzce region following the major earthquake: implications for ANN and Markov Chain Analysis

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dc.authoridsunbul, fatih/0000-0002-3590-374X
dc.contributor.authorKaradeniz, Enes
dc.contributor.authorSunbul, Fatih
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-09T18:48:17Z
dc.date.available2024-03-09T18:48:17Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentİzmir Bakırçay Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractEarthquakes are natural events that affect the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/land cover. Here, we have focused on the city of Duzce, NW of Turkey, which has experienced the M > 7 doublet earthquakes in 1999. In order to conduct land cover change analysis and future projection, we have utilized integrated the multilayer perceptron neural network-based Markov chain model combined with geographical information systems. Our results show that most of the land use in 1990 was 77,601 hectares (65.89% of the region) consist of forest and shrubs. By 2020, agricultural land was the most expanding land class in the region with 48.80%. The 1999 earthquake caused the city to grow horizontally in the long run, and this expansion has ended the occupation in grade-one-agricultural lands that prevailed in the region. This horizontal development also caused the residential areas that covered 2.76% of the study area in 1999 expand to the ratio of 20.37% in 2050. It has been determined that the most effective driver in these changes in the land cover is the distance from urban with a Cramer's value of 0.4299. For this reason, the area that is most exposed to land cover change is the forest and shrub areas occupied by the city, which has spread to the northeast due to the earthquake. It is concluded that the earthquakes can change the land cover of the city significantly in various aspects in the long term, contrary to the approved zoning plans.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s12665-023-10881-8
dc.identifier.issn1866-6280
dc.identifier.issn1866-6299
dc.identifier.issue10en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85159859363en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-10881-8
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14034/1274
dc.identifier.volume82en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000983293800004en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Earth Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectArtificial Neural Network; Multilayer Perceptron; Markov Chain; Lulc Prediction; 1999 Duzce Earthquake; Duzce Plainen_US
dc.titleLand use and land cover change in Duzce region following the major earthquake: implications for ANN and Markov Chain Analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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