Observed and projected geographical and temporal changes in the Köppen-Geiger climate types in Türkiye
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Tarih
2025
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Springer
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
This study aimed at comparing the geographical and climatological changes in the spatial distributions and average elevations of Türkiye’s recent past (1961 − 1990) present (1991 − 2020) and projected future climate types in detail via the Köppen-Geiger (K-G) classification. The future K-G climate types were examined for the periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2099 based on low (SSP1 − 2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and very high (SSP5-8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. From 1961 − 1990 to 1991 − 2020, the mid-latitude semi-arid steppe (BSk), subtropical semi-arid steppe (BSh), and dry summer Mediterranean (Csa) climates expanded from 21.9% to 24.2%, 0.1% to 0.4%, and 28.9% to 31.8%, respectively. Conversely, the dry and warm summer cold (Dsb) climate decreased from 24% to 19.3%. Future projections, especially those under high emissions, reveal significant changes in the Dsb and Dfb (cold and humid with warm summer) climates. The main cold climate is expected to change toward drier and warmer cold climates. The current expansion of semi-arid steppe and Mediterranean climates and the contraction of the Dsb climate type can be seen as early indicators of the significant changes foreseen in future periods. As well, average elevations of climatic types will increase in both two future periods and two scenarios, especially in the very high scenarios. For example, under the very high scenario for the period of 2041 − 2070, the average elevations of the Cs, Cf, Ds, Df, and ET climates will increase by approximately 120 m, 220 m, 185 m, 290 m, and 1040 m, respectively. These results also show that the elevations and thicknesses of orographic-climatic vegetation layers may change; for example, the forest upper limit may be approximately 120–220 m higher in the future than in the present, for example, in humid temperate Black Sea forests. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2025.
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Anahtar Kelimeler
Turkey, climate change, climate classification, climate prediction, climatology, comparative study, elevation, geographical variation, regional climate, spatial distribution, temporal variation
